market_report

6.1 Market

Slide 1 - Cover (LAVisions layout)layout: title_hero · 16:9
Shiftly
Market Opportunity
An $18B labor-cost market still run on spreadsheets
MK 01 / 10
A massive market moving fast with no clear leader
A large labor-cost software category no one owns
TAMSAMSOM
$18.0BEvery dollar spent scheduling and managing hourly workforce labor
$4.5B independent + $8.0B regional chains + $5.5B franchise networks
National Restaurant Association Research, 2026
$4.2BThe share Shiftly's direct sales and partnerships can serve
$18.0B total addressable market x roughly 23% serviceable filter
National Retail Federation Research, 2026
$210MWhat disciplined five-year execution can realistically capture and retain
$4.2B serviceable addressable market x 5% five-year capture rate
Company Internal Analysis, 2026
MK 02 / 10
Why now
Fair-scheduling laws and thin margins make this unavoidable now
01
Fair-scheduling laws spreading city by city
Predictive-scheduling ordinances now cover major metro markets, with more cities passing new fair-workweek rules each year
02
POS and payroll data now real-time
Modern POS and payroll platforms now expose live sales and labor data via API, making automated forecasting possible for the first time
03
Frontline turnover crisis in hospitality
Retail and restaurant turnover remains near 60% annually, and operators increasingly link it to unpredictable, poorly-costed scheduling
MK 03 / 10
Business Model
Per-Seat SaaS Subscription
Primary Source of Income
Monthly per-employee subscription fee at $6 per scheduled employee per month, billed per location
Optional compliance and reporting add-on priced at a 15% premium
Unit economics
Unit Economics
Blended average revenue per scheduled employee runs an estimated $75 to $80 per year across plans
MK 04 / 10
Total Addressable Market
A bottom-up build across every segment of the hourly workforce Total addressable market = Locations x Employees per location x Spend per employee Segmented by location scale: independent operators, regional multi-location chains, and franchise networks, together covering the full market with no overlap. unit_a = number of hourly-workforce locations in the segment; unit_b = average scheduled hourly employees per location; unit_c = average annual labor-management software spend per employee
$18.0B
Independent operators with one to nine locations Locations 1.5M Employees per Location 6 Spend per Employee $500 $4.5B
Regional chains with ten to ninety-nine locations Locations 40,000 Employees per Location 50 Spend per Employee $4,000 $8.0B
Franchise networks with 100 or more locations Locations 11,000 Employees per Location 50 Spend per Employee $10,000 $5.5B
Assumes a blended 7% annual market growth rate through 2030. Bottom-up build validated against published industry benchmarks and internal research.
MK 05 / 10
Serviceable Addressable Market $4.2B

Filters applied to TAM:

Segment: Multi-location chains of 10 or more locations only - 65% concentrates spend among operators with dedicated labor budgets and buying authority
Vertical: Retail, restaurant, and hospitality operators only - 80% excludes healthcare, logistics, and other hourly verticals outside Shiftly's product fit
Geography: United States operations only - 90% excludes international chains until Shiftly builds localized compliance and payroll coverage
Deployment readiness: Already running a POS or payroll system with an open API - 50% excludes operators on closed legacy systems that block data forecasting today
$4.2B
TAM
× 90%
× 89%
× 99%
× 99%
SAM
MK 06 / 10
Serviceable Obtainable Market Our target in 5 years $210M
Year Hourly employees Annual billing frequency Avg spend per employee Total
Y1 200K 12 $6 $14.4M
Y2 500K 12 $6 $36M
Y3 1.0M 12 $6 $72M
Y4 1.8M 12 $6 $129.6M
Y5 2.9M 12 y5 unit c value y5 total
Active users01M2M3M4M150K600K1.4M2.6M3.8MYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
MK 07 / 10
Industry Growth and CAGR9.8% CAGR through 2030
1×2×3×1.0×3.3×27% CAGR202520262027202820292030Grand View Research, 2026
Workforce management software market reaches $9.8B by 2030 - Grand View Research | https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/workforce-management-market
Predictive scheduling laws now cover 12+ major US cities - Economic Policy Institute | https://www.epi.org/publication/just-in-time-scheduling
Frontline turnover costs US employers over $600B a year - Society for Human Resource Management | https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/turnover-retention
POS and payroll API adoption grew 40% among mid-market chains - PitchBook | https://pitchbook.com/news/reports
MK 08 / 10
Market Challenges Four barriers keep incumbents out - each is our advantage
POS and payroll data trapped in disconnected legacy systems Adds three to six months to new customer onboarding Shiftly ships prebuilt connectors for the twenty leading POS platforms
Predictive scheduling laws vary by city and industry Triples compliance and legal overhead for multi-state operators Built-in compliance engine flags violations before schedules publish
Managers entrenched in free spreadsheet-based scheduling habits Slows sales cycles by two to three months versus new categories Partnership with the National Restaurant Association accelerates manager training and adoption
Fragmented point-of-sale and payroll vendor landscape Adds two to four weeks of integration work per client Shiftly's open API layer connects to any vendor within days
MK 09 / 10
Key Takeaway Large, growing, and underserved - ready for disruption
Total Addressable Market $18B
Serviceable Addressable Market $4.2B
Serviceable Obtainable Market $210M
Compound Annual Growth Rate 9.80%
MK 10 / 10